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FY16 Federal Budget Spending Estimates
for Fiscal Years 2015 - 2020

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US Federal Government Spending
Budget Interest Cost Analysis for FY 16 in $ billion
FY 2015
 Spending
FY 2016
 Spending
FY 2017
 Spending
FY 2018
 Spending
FY 2019
 Spending
FY 2020
 Spending
OMB Budget Numbers1
Interest229.2283.0361.3424.2483.5543.8
Interest Rate %1.231.461.802.032.232.43
Total Spending3,758.63,999.54,217.84,423.34,652.64,886.4
Federal Deficit582.5474.3462.8478.9517.7554.1
Gross Public Debt18,627.619,333.820,095.120,870.321,640.322,413.2
Revised Budget Numbers
Revised Interest229.2283.0361.3424.2483.5543.8
Revised Interest Rate %Go
Revised Total Spending3,758.63,999.54,217.84,423.34,652.64,886.4
Revised Federal Deficit582.5474.3462.8478.9517.7554.1
Revised Gross Public Debt18,627.619,333.820,095.120,870.321,640.322,413.2
Spending:
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estimated budgeted guesstimated
Notes:
1. Budget of the US Government: Table 3.2



The table shows overall budgeted federal expenditures for total spending and interest payments on federal debt for the next five fiscal years. In the first section, labeled “OMB Budget Numbers” you can see the budgeted expenditure as estimated in the historical tables in the current presidential budget. The row labeled “Interest Rate %” is the effective interest rate for the accumulated federal debt for each year and is computed by dividing the budgeted interest cost by the gross public debt.

Under “Revised Budget Numbers” you can input your own estimate of future interest rates for each fiscal year. Click Go to recalculate interest costs and to view the effect of those interest costs on total spending and the accumulated federal debt.

Notes

Data Sources: Federal spending from Budget of the United States Government.

For a discussion of the sources of the government spending data used here read How We Got the Data for usgovernmentspending.com.

Budget Updates: The president’s budget is typically published each year in February.

Download Federal Interest Forecast for 2015-2020

You can download budget data as a CSV file or directly as a tab-delimited table.

Download Data as CSV File

 Click button to download CSV file of data in table

Tab-delimited Table

Here is the interest forecast table with columns tab-delimited. You can cut and paste directly into a spreadsheet:

You can copy all the text in the textbox by clicking your cursor in the box. Then press Ctrl-A and Ctrl-C and paste the text into your spreadsheet.

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.
  Federal data since 1962 comes from the president’s budget.
  All other spending data comes from the US Census Bureau.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1890.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Gross State Product Update for 2014

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2014 on June 10, 2015.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2014 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2020 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2016 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2020 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2014 GSP growth rates.

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Christopher Chantrill.

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