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What is Agency Debt?

This page shows Agency Debt.

Agency Debt: That’s the amount of debt outstanding issued by federal agencies (such as FHLB and GNMA) and government-sponsored enterprises (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

Up to now, Agency Debt has not been included in the total debt of the United States government as published by the United States Department of the Treasury.

 

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Federal Debt Clock

Today’s Federal Debt is about $19,549,555,413,000.

The amount is the gross outstanding federal debt issued by the United States Department of the Treasury since 1790.

But, it doesn’t include state and local debt.

And, it doesn’t include so-called “agency debt.”

And, it doesn’t include the so-called unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Federal Debt per person is about $59,913.

Projected and Recent US Agency Debt Numbers

Fiscal
Year
Total
Agency Debt
GSE DebtAgency/GSE
Mortgage
Pool Debt
2016*$8.24 trln$6.43 trln$1.81 trln
2015*$8.08 trln$6.35 trln$1.72 trln
2014$7.92 trln$6.28 trln$1.64 trln
2013$7.77 trln$6.20 trln$1.57 trln
2012$7.53 trln$6.09 trln$1.44 trln

Note:

* Agency Debt after 2014 is “guesstimated.”

Agency Debt Charts   also: Spending Charts  Revenue Charts  Debt Charts  Deficit Charts  

 

Recent US Agency/GSE Debt

Chart D.21f: Recent US Agency Debt

Chart D.22f: Recent US Agency Debt as Percent GDP

Agency Debt, i.e. debt issued by US agencies and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and not counted as US Treasury debt, increased briskly from $6 trillion in 2005 to over $8 trillion in 2008. But the real-estate collapse stopped the increase in agency debt, and since 2008 agency debt has remained at or a little below $8 trillion.

Viewed as percent of GDP, agency debt increased substantially against the headwinds of the early decline in the real-estate market, peaking at over 56 percent GDP in 2009. Since the Crash of 2008 agency debt has steadily decreased as a percent of GDP, down to 45 percent GDP in 2014.

US Agency Debt Since 1945

Chart D.23f: Agency Debt since 1945

Agency debt (primarily debt from agencies and government-sponsored enterprises like the Federal National Mortgage Association that securitize home mortgage debt) started the immediate post World War II era at with a level of debt less than 0.5 percent of GDP and didn’t hit 1 percent of GDP till 1957.

But then agency debt began an exponential rise, with debt hitting 2 percent of GDP in 1965, blowing past 5 percent of GDP in 1973, reaching 10 percent of GDP in 1981.

Agency debt blew past 20 percent of GDP in 1988, exceeded 30 percent of GDP in 1995, and hit 40 percent of GDP in 1999, and agency debt peaked at 52 percent of GDP in 2003 at the end of the 2000-02 recession.

In the 2000s expansion agency debt declined to 46.7 percent of GDP by 2006, but then blew off in the Crash of 2008, peaking at 56.1 percent of GDP in the Great Recession year of 2009.

After the Crash of 2008 agency debt decreased rapidly to 46.6 percent of GDP by 2012 and then began a more gradual decline to 45.5 percent of GDP by 2014.

Top Debt Requests:

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See FEDERAL BUDGET breakdown and estimated vs. actual.

See BAR CHARTS of debt, debt.

Check STATE debt: CA NY TX FL and compare.

See DEBT ANALYSIS briefing.

See DEBT HISTORY briefing.

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Debt Data Sources

Debt data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of debt data sources here.

Federal debt data begins in 1792.

State and local debt data begins in 1890.

State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Gross Federal Debt

Debt: $19,549,555,413,000

Data Sources for 2011_2021:

Sources for 2011:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2021:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Gross State Product Update for 2015

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2015 on June 14, 2016.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2015 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2020 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2016 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2021 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2015 GSP growth rates.

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usgovernmentdebt.us was designed and executed by:

Christopher Chantrill.

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presented by Christopher Chantrill

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